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Background

Simon asked me what’s hot. Obviously Little Shoes, Yo Dawg, and John Maynard Keynes are hot. But what about the main trends and drivers affecting the Internet in 2009 [he did not go on to ask]? What should web managers be thinking about right now? A substantially less interesting question that I will attempt to answer. This is the first part.

Internet use is growing fast

Internet growth is mostly driven by legit music and video sevices like iPlayer). Some people worry it will turn into an exaflood or worse. Perhaps it’s not as bad as that, but the era of flat-fee all-you-can-eat broadband is closing.

The future

Two things could happen:

• Internet service providers prioritize certain sources and kinds of web traffic over others (and they’d like the web content providers to pay for it ok? Thanks awfully).

  For example, YouTube might pay an ISP to ensure it’s videos always travel in the fast lane. Or an ISP might divert bittorrent traffic to the back roads (“traffic-shaping or -policing”).

This is already happening to an extent. However, it conflicts with the (non-legal) principle of Net Neutrality and the EU may regulate it away. Don’t be surprised, though, if the telcos and big media manage to pull it off anyway.

• Internet service providers kill flat-rate pricing for consumers.

  So instead of a single fee for as much as you can download as fast as you can get it, there will be confusing tiers prices and packages and bundles and the whole confusion marketing bolus.

For example, Citizen Journalist starts to upload her latest video of today’s demonstration to IndyMedia. Up pops the message, “Get a 10x speed boost now! Save 5 hours (estimated) for only £1.99!”

This is almost certain to happen.

So how is a popup like that going to affect people’s online behaviour?

And how will it affect your online services?

Related bonus prediction

More Hulu-style HD video services. Larger files, mainstream content, higher advertising inventory. “ Lean-back” websites. TV’s not dead, it’s just on the Internet.